Serhiy Grabsky, a military analyst, a reserve colonel, a former Ukrainian Defense Ministry official involved in peacekeeping operations in Kosovo and Iraq, answers a popular question when the war will finally change dramatically.
- Ukraine is facing a very serious opponent, which currently has the power and resources.
- Not a month, not even 2-3 months is enough to change the situation strategically in this war.
- It would be a crime to throw unprepared units into battle.
- Russia can not stop the avalanche of aid to Ukraine, which is approaching.
- The Russians are studying their military tactics. These are no longer some stubborn column discoveries without preparation. Now these are smart actions.
- We are not holding on to every piece of land, we are defending diversion.
– Now we see a trend that people who sympathize with Ukraine are already looking forward to a radical turn in the war. Like, when will the Ukrainian army finally launch a strategic offensive and start expelling the occupiers from their territories? These feelings are fueled by some Ukrainian speakers who talk about “a week or two”. When to expect a Ukrainian attack?
– It’s too early to discuss. I do not share the statement that the strategic counterattack is going to start “tomorrow” – because such actions require very careful preparation.
Qualitative advantage is more important, because the enemy uses rather outdated weapons and military equipment
It must be understood that Ukraine is facing a very serious enemy, which at the moment has the advantage in power and means. And to beat it you need to have a quantitative and qualitative advantage. Qualitative advantage is more important here, because the enemy uses rather outdated weapons and military equipment.
Therefore, both we and our allies understand that a very difficult stage of the struggle is ahead. The enemy is still strong enough and is working hard to make the most of what he can achieve in this war. Now we are going through very difficult times, the situation forces us to mobilize.
But to say that tomorrow will be a turning point in the war – I will not say. Even a month, even 2-3 months – this time is not enough to strategically change the situation in this war.
– And why do you say that Russia “today has an advantage in power and resources”? The Russian contingent in Ukraine is estimated at about 150,000 people. Meanwhile, mobilization is underway in Ukraine and it is estimated that up to 700,000 people may be mobilized. In addition, many write and talk about the supply of Western equipment and weapons. Thus, Ukraine must ultimately have an advantage in both resources and armaments (at least if Russia does not announce a general mobilization).
– Yes, the mobilization continues. But you have to understand that there are stages of combat training that require a lot of time. Throwing unprepared units into battle would be a crime.
As for the other side, Russia. Even if we take the number of 150 thousand, it is about 10-15 percent of the total number of the Russian Armed Forces. If we talk about the body that fights against us, we must say that they have the ability to return and throw in the battle fresh compounds. And they do.
The equipment we need for a major breakthrough in war is just beginning to arrive
It should be understood that they do not use these units very effectively, throwing into battle those units that have just left the battle. Therefore, they have insufficiently prepared stocks. There are a few more than we have, but not enough to change the situation.
But the equipment we need for a major breakthrough in war is just beginning to arrive and saturation will not come soon. After all, there is distance, and time for certain procedures, and logistical support. As well as time to master this technique. Our army is now mastering this technique abroad – but you understand it takes 2-3 or even 5 months.
Based on this, we need to understand what difficult times await us in the coming weeks and months. That is why I do not share the euphoria of some of our activists, as well as friends abroad, who believe that tomorrow Ukraine will launch an attack and everything will end in a quick victory. There will be no quick victory.
– In connection with the supply of Western equipment and weapons to Ukraine, Russia began to try to prevent it by bombing railways and fuel depots. Are there problems with the delivery of these weapons to the front and is there enough fuel?
– The enemy has managed to seriously complicate the supply of troops and the whole of Ukraine with fuel resources. As for the delivery of the equipment, I will say as a specialist, transport engineer.
The avalanche of aid to the approaching Ukraine can not stop
Russia is thinking from the perspective of the twentieth century when it comes to destroying transport infrastructure. At that time, the basis of everything was the railway. Today, however, this practice has been abandoned and the emphasis is on the separation of military transport and the use of combined delivery methods. The emphasis shifted from rail to road and air. Therefore, the pursuit of missiles for railway infrastructure is not very effective, the missile does not always hit the target.
Civilian infrastructure is most affected by missile attacks. The avalanche of aid to the approaching Ukraine can not stop. Therefore, the blows to the infrastructure in fact by the method of war have become a method of terror against the population of Ukraine.
– From the beginning of the war, I heard from Russian military commentators that the Russian troops were going to encircle, to close the circle of Ukrainian units in Donbas, where the fiercest fighting is taking place. Is there really a threat here? It seems that the previous Napoleonic plans of the Russian commanders for a large boiler have changed and now Russia is trying to build several smaller boilers. Is there a threat to this and how is the Ukrainian military leadership reacting to it?
– This is a sensible strategy on the part of Russia. Any commander will say that attacking the enemy “on the front” in a protected and prepared position – means condemning yourself to great losses. Therefore, their efforts to encircle the Ukrainian troops in Donbass seem reasonable. Not surprisingly, they can achieve some local success in some areas.
We are maneuvering defense. This allows us to do various maneuvers
We need to understand Ukraine’s position. We are not holding on to every piece of land, we are defending diversion. This allows us to perform a variety of maneuvers, including retreating, as provided for in any military statute. After all, it is much more difficult to leave troops surrounded, in cauldrons, and then try to hand them weapons and reinforcements. It is better to go, reorganize and take the fight to new positions.
We can say that the Russians are learning military tactics. These are no longer stubborn columns without preparation. Now these are smart actions. With the maneuvers of our defense, we exhaust the Russian troops, minimizing their attack.
– on the website of the Belarusian edition of Radio Svoboda
source: radio svoboda