While the landslide victory of Juanma Moreno in Andalusia returns the Partido Popular to its status as a center-right benchmark and begins the reconstruction of the Spanish two-party system that was blown up in 2015, our neighbor France looks out on ungovernability. Moreno has punctured the extremist balloon of Vox and has absorbed Ciudadanos after Albert Rivera’s refusal to agree with Pedro Sánchez (2019) relegated the Liberals to irrelevance. Inés Arrimadas’s attempts to revive the party were doomed to failure, mortgaged by the egregious error of its founder. The Andalusian elections have also left a (only) good news for Ferraz. There is no alternative government to the left of the PSOE. The relief in power to the PP goes through Ferraz.

The 19-J in France has left, however, a bleak political panorama. The hypercenter of Emmanuel Macron has dug a hole to the right and to the left which has been occupied by the national populism of Marine Le Pen and the anti-Europeanism and anti-Atlanticism of Jean Luc Mélenchon. The cordon sanitaire against the extreme right has stopped working in the Hexagon. Against all odds, Regrouping National has won 89 seats in the National Assembly. Its leader’s strategy of softening his image and his speech has caught on among the French electorate. Le Pen has managed to establish itself in the territory and is in better condition to contest the Elysee in 2027. A date that could be shortened if Macron fails to carry out his second term.

The French president is considering two options: coalition or variable geometry. Voters have amended Macron’s reformist agenda. Law-to-law negotiation as if it were a Borgen character can lead the Elysee to perpetual instability. Internal weakness always translates into external vulnerability. The context could not be more unfavourable. A “lame duck” in the rotating Presidency of the EU with a Ukraine at war with Russia. But the internal political crisis has been brewing in France for some time. Macron would be wrong if he attributes social unrest to purely external factors (armed conflict, pandemic or economic crisis).

To save his second term, it is necessary that he undertake a profound government crisis. From the prime minister to the ministers. Elisabeth Borne struggled to get her seat for Calvados. The strategy of governing «au meme temps» with the right and with the left has been exhausted. The most stable majority that can be woven in the current National Assembly goes through an understanding with the classic right of the Republicans. The union of the left and the extreme left of Mélenchon will end up devouring itself by his Cainite drive. Look at the show of Podemos. The legislative fiasco darkens the future of Ensemble! beyond 2027. There is no alternative to Macron in such a personalist party. The French president wanted to shake off the responsibilities for the collapse of the Socialist Party and the Republicans in the presidential elections. “It’s not my fault”. After the setback of the legislative elections, the president must listen to the cry of the polls or, on the contrary, he will pave the way to the extremes.